Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 0.119293 0.131638 0.144278 0.158159 0.172948 0.188206 0.205111
2024-12-22 0.093946 0.111821 0.131057 0.153172 0.177773 0.204180 0.234548
2024-12-29 0.081423 0.103485 0.128249 0.157807 0.191827 0.229466 0.273966
2025-01-05 0.071393 0.096326 0.125391 0.161225 0.203669 0.251811 0.310006
2025-01-12 0.062942 0.089811 0.122240 0.163397 0.213380 0.271289 0.342608
2025-01-19 0.055433 0.083487 0.118479 0.164099 0.220769 0.287675 0.371425
2025-01-26 0.053748 0.084304 0.123361 0.175278 0.240819 0.319228 0.418488
2025-02-02 0.048816 0.080247 0.121558 0.177677 0.249790 0.337307 0.449447
2025-02-09 0.045000 0.077299 0.120858 0.181210 0.259997 0.356827 0.482216
2025-02-16 0.040374 0.072738 0.117600 0.181053 0.265250 0.370068 0.507251
2025-02-23 0.039348 0.073306 0.121287 0.190114 0.282449 0.398391 0.551204
2025-03-02 0.037852 0.072994 0.123623 0.197285 0.297192 0.423705 0.591603
2025-03-09 0.034105 0.069061 0.120813 0.197587 0.303271 0.438630 0.619925
2025-03-16 0.029534 0.063397 0.115160 0.193688 0.303616 0.446213 0.639158
2025-03-23 0.028017 0.062620 0.116684 0.199942 0.317790 0.471937 0.681892
2025-03-30 0.026172 0.061096 0.116941 0.204298 0.329375 0.494377 0.720635
2025-04-06 0.024122 0.058994 0.116137 0.206992 0.338614 0.513765 0.755577
2025-04-13 0.021888 0.056310 0.114215 0.207873 0.345227 0.529646 0.786035
2025-04-20 0.022298 0.058623 0.120410 0.221064 0.369429 0.569367 0.848125
2025-04-27 0.020680 0.056864 0.119826 0.223894 0.378861 0.589238 0.884223
2025-05-04 0.019436 0.055706 0.120143 0.228049 0.390194 0.611754 0.923977
2025-05-11 0.017559 0.053049 0.117755 0.227866 0.395165 0.625574 0.952224
2025-05-18 0.017571 0.054358 0.122211 0.238495 0.416029 0.661368 1.010091